It would be insane if we lose this gain.
I made the mistake years ago by trading AAPL. I won't make that mistake with NVDA. I'm just gonna buy some every month. Unless I hear about China amassing troops on the beach. Then I'll sell.
It would be insane if we lose this gain.
I made the mistake years ago by trading AAPL. I won't make that mistake with NVDA. I'm just gonna buy some every month. Unless I hear about China amassing troops on the beach. Then I'll sell.
Thanos was the hero
I really thought the broader market would be up today. I guess it moved on to Jackson Hole now.
China fear is the only thing I can think of that makes sense for these prices. And it's a real fear and the reason I'm not using margin yet.
I think NVDA is trading roughly 30-35 times current year EPS. 6 months from now I don't think NVDA has a PE of 30-35
Thanos was the hero
The market just hasn't made sense the last month or so really. I've been about ready to cash out several times.
It is all over the place. A lot of retailers reporting bad earnings, student loan payments restarting, interest rates still high (and may be for an extended period), and debt levels. The job market still seems good and wage growth seems to be continuing to grow (I don't know if that is good or bad though). At least cash is paying something so you can be more cautious and still get paid.Originally Posted by Bassmaster96
Couldn't have dreamed up a better quarter than reported. Crazy it didn't move. NVDA might be like AAPL and require a stock split to get it going.
I cashed out half my stocks today and will be cashing out more soon. September is the worst month historically for stock market gains. There is potential next year for civil unrest and violence in the midst of all the upcoming judicial proceedings, that could cause market volatility. I plan on being >80% out of equities, and will boringly settle for ~5% guaranteed returns, and look to return to the market after it all shakes out and simmers down.
Yeah I'm already holding quite a bit of cash, but think I will cash out more in the next little bit if we can get some green days.
I'm using days like yesterday, today and the next few weeks to put money to work.
Thanos was the hero
Are you just adding to positions or swinging?
I am not in the stock nor have I performed any research....is this a pull back to a gap fill? if not, then it makes no sense to me with the quarter they reported.
What we cannot obtain from intelligence, we can learn from experience.
Added to NVDA, basically bought back what I sold a few days ago and added to FSLR, swing the QQQs
will be buying AAPL, MSFT at some point. And will add to NVDA every 3-5% lower. Will stop out on China invasion
Will add to TSLA eventually, but I'm really cautious right now, I will probably wait till earnings.
Thanos was the hero
I think theres a combination of a few things for the pullback. NVDA has had such a big run, it makes sense to take a profit, especially with all the fear about China. If China invades, I lose my butt if I can't get out quick enough.
There's a few narratives going around. That quarter was so good, there is no way it can get better, no way they can keep this up, it must be the top. Cisco did the exact same thing before crashing 75%. Double ordering, competition is coming........
Thanos was the hero
Not to be negative, but that is exactly what I was thinking when looking through the report. How much higher can they go from here?
I have only thought that 1 other time. That time was when AAPL hit 1 trillion market cap. I no longer use that as a reason for anything. And it works the other way, I thought, how much lower could META go
Thanos was the hero
And the other question is whether the run up that happened prior to earnings was already pricing great earnings news in? Broadcom has been on a good run as well and I still have the position I got during the COVID dive but I could see them also suffering from some of the things that may be hitting NVDA except it may be valued a little more conservatively. This use to have a very low PE ratio like 12 or something but now it looks like the TTM is around 27 which is historically high for Broadcom.
I don't want to convince you or anyone else of how high this stock could go but I would suggest anyone interested to listen to the conference calls, this quarter and last. And/ or read the call's transcripts.
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-t...ll-transcript/
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-t...ll-transcript/
It is very possible the stock does nothing for the next 6 months. Maybe the market wants to wait and see if NVDA can deliver. In the next 6 months maybe a contender arrives and NVDA has to lower prices lowering margins to keep demand high. Maybe AI is a flash in the pan. We've had AI and "machine learning" bubbles before. Afterall, NVDA was a gaming stock, then a crypto mining stock, then a gaming stock, and now suddenly is gonna change the world. Bring about a new era of AI learning.
I completely understand the CISCO, .com bubble comparisons. But I look at it like this, if NVDA is the next CISCO, I think it's CSCO 1995-97.
Thanos was the hero
NVDA has a historical average PE of 45. Add in the next 2 quarters and it's trading in the mid 30s for a PE. Software sector trades around a 50 PE. I think NVDA will get a PE closer to what AWS is valued at for AMZN, cause why not?
NVDA can no longer be valued as a semiconductor stock. OR else, I'm really really really wrong
Thanos was the hero
A good discussion about NVDA. They lay out a decent case for tempering expectations, and also some bullish cases. I really like the comparison they laid out about the gold rush. NVDA is selling the picks and shovels but we don't really know yet what the gold is. The gold rush led to California being one of the largest economies in the world. So what does AI get us to, nobody really knows. And thats what I find exciting about investing in NVDA, which is a terrible investing strategy
Thanos was the hero
I bought on the pullback to 450 and sold and took my profit today. Not a bad 4 days.
I was right there with you buying in the 450s, only I won't be selling. The reason being is,1 I think it's cheap and 2, news in the AI space is rapid. Like today with news of a new partnership with GOOGL.
Thanos was the hero
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