Interest Rate Cuts

[NitroZ7]

I am starting to think we get 1 or none this year.

[boneil]

I tend to agree. A symbolic single cut. As long as the economy keeps growing, and inflation remains above 2% there's no reason to cut other than political pressure.

[apenland01]

Agreed...

[mossie3]

I wish they would keep interest rates where they are. My interest income is 20X what it was 4 years ago. 0.25% interest rates with inflation is rough on retirees.

[NitroZ7]

I wish they would keep interest rates where they are. My interest income is 20X what it was 4 years ago. 0.25% interest rates with inflation is rough on retirees.

Even if they do cut I doubt we will see 0 or near zero again. I forget what program I was watching but they mentioned that a typical neutral rate would be in the 3-3.5% range. But I agree that getting 5% on cash has been really nice. Also remember you can buy some treasuries or cds that are not callable if you want to try to lock in some interest rates for a fixed period.

[tcesni]

Even if they do cut I doubt we will see 0 or near zero again. I forget what program I was watching but they mentioned that a typical neutral rate would be in the 3-3.5% range. But I agree that getting 5% on cash has been really nice. Also remember you can buy some treasuries or cds that are not callable if you want to try to lock in some interest rates for a fixed period.

Interest rates were too low for too long but looking forward to some easing beginning soon. I will admit that it has been good to see my 96 year old father make some money on his savings via CD’s.

[Bassin08]

We had a banner year in 2023 using fixed income. The only negative was when it came to tax time. A person should not have 85% of SS taxed!

[NitroZ7]

We had a banner year in 2023 using fixed income. The only negative was when it came to tax time. A person should not have 85% of SS taxed!

Dang they may as well keep most of the payment and just send you the change.

[troutspinner]

What do you guys see as an optimal mortgage interest for a stable economy? In my time, I’ve had 8 5/8 to 2 3/8 and a couple in-between. While I am enjoying that 2 3/8, I’ve never seen home prices in my area go down, only up during the good times and stabilize during the high interest time. I have no idea how my kids are going to even afford a starter home in my area at today’s interest rates.

[NitroZ7]

What do you guys see as an optimal mortgage interest for a stable economy? In my time, I’ve had 8 5/8 to 2 3/8 and a couple in-between. While I am enjoying that 2 3/8, I’ve never seen home prices in my area go down, only up during the good times and stabilize during the high interest time. I have no idea how my kids are going to even afford a starter home in my area at today’s interest rates.

I think at some point we will see mortgage rates in the 5-6% range. I don't think we will see mortgage rates in the 2-3% range anytime soon.

[200xp]

That pesky transitory inflation....the market is like a drug addict, craving the rate cuts. Welcome to the new normal, we will adjust in due time.

[NitroZ7]

That pesky transitory inflation....the market is like a drug addict, craving the rate cuts. Welcome to the new normal, we will adjust in due time.

This is all Ikon Boats fault with their $200,000.00 rig

[boneil]

At this point no matter what the Fed does, they're gonna be accused of being politically motivated. They painted themselves into a corner.

[mossie3]

Wish they would leave interest rates where they at. I got a 2,000% raise on interest income going from 0.25% to 5% ROI. It absolutely sucked only making 0.25% and watching the value of money deteriorate at the same time.

[Bassin08]

Dang they may as well keep most of the payment and just send you the change.

Wait until your forced into RMD’s, it doesn’t take that much to get to that 85%.

[Bassin08]

Wish they would leave interest rates where they at. I got a 2,000% raise on interest income going from 0.25% to 5% ROI. It absolutely sucked only making 0.25% and watching the value of money deteriorate at the same time.

+1 I actually cashed all of those lower interest CD’s and took the penalties and laddered them out to 1-5 years.I also bought a 5 year fixed annuity @ 5%. The only place the interest rates hurt me temporarily is in preferred stock’s values, but I’m not going to be selling them as long as they keep paying the high dividend.

[boneil]

How soon do we start pricing in a recession and several rate cuts?

After this employment report and the anecdotal evidence I'm seeing, I think next month might be worst and even show job losses. Boy would that throw the market into a tizzy. How quick would we start pricing in a recession?

[NitroZ7]

How soon do we start pricing in a recession and several rate cuts?

After this employment report and the anecdotal evidence I'm seeing, I think next month might be worst and even show job losses. Boy would that throw the market into a tizzy. How quick would we start pricing in a recession?

I am not sure when it gets priced in but I feel like we are well on our way there. I see lots of stories of layoffs and that Starbucks report makes me think that higher income consumers are starting to cut back and those are the ones that tend to spend the most.

[JJohnSind]

I still see plenty of people at Starbucks, but I’ve always seen plenty of people that SHOULDN’T be going there. I think many of those have finally realized that they can’t afford to go there every day.

[davidsa]

The fed is in a very tough spot. Inflation over normal rates is not locked in yet the housing market is a mess. When I look at housing rates, they are almost 3% less then my home loan in 1990. I guess the problem is that people today can't afford the home one could in 1990 and some bought houses well above what they could afford assuming a 3 year ARM at 3% would continue forever